One-third of economists predict US recession in 2021

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One-third of economists predict US recession in 2021

Among 226 economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, 34% said a recession would hit the U.S. in 2021, an increase from 25% who believed so in February.

The new survey, released Monday by the Washington-based organization, also revealed that fewer economists expected a recession to begin this year — only 2%, down from 10% who said so February.

Additionally, 38% of the economists are predicting a recession will begin in 2020, down from 42% in February. The number who believe a recession could hit later than 2021 increased to 14% from 11%.

President Donald Trump has made the U.S. economy a cornerstone of his reelection campaign, and he told reporters on Sunday, “I don’t see a recession.”

“I’m prepared for everything,” Trump added. “I don’t think we’re having a recession. We’re doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich. I gave a tremendous tax cut. And they’re loaded up with money.”

PHOTO: U.S. Secret Service agents guard President Donald Trump as he boards Air Force One to return to Washington from Morristown Municipal Airport in Morristown, New Jersey, Aug. 18, 2019.Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
U.S. Secret Service agents guard President Donald Trump as he boards Air Force One to return to Washington from Morristown Municipal Airport in Morristown, New Jersey, Aug. 18, 2019.

Peter Navarro, a White House trade adviser, said Sunday on “This Week” that the U.S. economy would be strong through 2020.

“One of the things the president does beautifully,” Navarro said during the interview, “is engage with the business community, labor leaders and everybody in between.”

The NABE was formed in 1959 and, according to the organization’s website, is “the premier professional association for business economists and others who use economics in the workplace.” Past NABE presidents include Alan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve chair.

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